Friday, January 07, 2011

 

India -: Asia’s other economic powerhouse

India: Asia’s other economic powerhouse

ANDY HOFFMAN — ASIA-PACIFIC REPORTER

Published The Globe and Mail Thursday, Dec. 30, 2010

India’s problems are obvious and enormous: crushing poverty, persistent corruption scandals and a crumbling infrastructure that is decades out of date.

At first blush, India’s economic virtues are less apparent, but they are tremendously compelling, particularly over the long term.

As China’s roaring economy has been the pacesetter for recovery from the global financial crisis, the world’s most populated country has garnered the bulk of international attention. From its undervalued currency to its mushrooming modern super-cities to its yawning trade surplus with the United States, China has dominated the attention of the world’s financial markets this year.

Yet 2011 may finally be the year when people wake up to the potential of the other Asian economic superpower.

India currently enjoys three major economic attributes that China lacks: democracy, favourable demographics and a preponderance of English speakers, which helps ease business dealings with the West. In 2011, these advantages could begin to bloom.

As Raghav Bahl, the founder and controlling shareholder of Network 18, India’s largest television news and business network, argues forcefully in his new book Superpower? The Amazing Race Between China’s Hare and India’s Tortoise, India has the mettle and resources needed to eventually close the economic gap with its powerful north-eastern neighbour.

For starters, Mr. Bhal notes, India is a democracy, the world’s largest, in fact. Compare that with China, where 24 members of the Central Politburo are tasked with charting the course for a nation of 1.3 billion people. The primary driver of much of China’s social, political, fiscal and monetary policy is preventing social unrest and keeping the Communist Party of China in power. Although admittedly flawed, India’s democratic system aims to elect representatives that will draft the best policies for the people and the country, not the political party they belong to.

As international objections to India’s nuclear weapons program have diminished, world leaders have begun flocking to India for diplomatic visits that are far less politically charged than missions to Beijing. India’s Parliament in New Delhi, currently led by Manmohan Singh, who was the architect of India’s key financial reforms in the 1990s, is now a must-visit location for global dignitaries.

In just the past two months, Prime Minister Singh has entertained U.S. President Barack Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, China’s Premier Wen Jiabao and, most recently, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Reinforcing India’s rising political and economic might, Mr. Singh has also visited Japan and Germany this year, rounding out his country’s engagement with most of the world’s major economies.

The Indian Prime Minister even found the time to come to Ottawa this year following Stephen Harper’s first trip to India in November, 2009.

Although Canada has yet to sign a free-trade agreement with any Asian countries (including South Korea and Singapore, where talks have dragged on for years), it began negotiations with India in November. If realized, Mr. Harper’s government has said a free-trade agreement between Canada and India could be worth $6-billion a year for each country. (Despite Canada boasting more than one million residents of South Asian descent, two-way trade with India was just $4.2-billion in 2009. Trade with China was about $50.5-billion.)

India also has demographics on its side. It will soon dwarf the rest of the world when it comes to its working age population – people between 18 and 65 who are contributing members of society. Compared to North America, Japan and even China, India is an exceptionally young country. The majority of its population is less than 30 years old and by 2020 the average age will be 29, compared to 45 in Western Europe and 48 in Japan, according to a recent report from the Canadian International Council.

China’s one-child policy has contributed to an aging population. Unless radical changes are made, China’s work force growth will end by 2030, and, like much of the rest of the world, the burden of looking after retirees will soar.

In just nine years, by 2020, the United States could be short 17 million people of working age, China 10 million, Japan nine million and Russia six million. At the same time, India will have a surplus of 47 million workers. If India can achieve the massive task of improving health care and educational services for these workers, it is sure to become an economic powerhouse.

While much has been made of China’s burgeoning consumer class, India is already endowed with a hefty middle class whose size has been estimated at about 200 million people – the entire population of Brazil.

India also enjoys an abundance of English speakers, a fact that could help facilitate more business and trade with the West, whose companies and politicians have often struggled with cultural and language challenges in China.

India represents the largest English-speaking ethnic community in the world, with about 350 million Indians displaying a reasonable proficiency in the language. Moving beyond its troubling colonial roots, English has become the language of upward mobility in India, used by cab drivers, university professors, lawyers and in business. Eighty per cent of India’s two million college graduates are English-speaking.

Despite the myriad of challenges faced by its 1.1 billion people, India is expected to record the second fastest growth of the world’s major economies in 2010, expanding by 9.7 per cent, according to the IMF. (China’s economy will grow by 10.5 per cent, the IMF says.) In the third quarter, India’s economy grew by a more-than-expected 8.9 per cent, with household spending and investment driving the expansion. According to London-based Capital Economics, India’s economic upswing will stay in good shape over the coming year.

“The structural development story is overwhelmingly positive and the government in the end will deliver on the reforms needed to ensure that the private sector continues to thrive,” Vishnu Varathan, the firm’s Asia economist, said in a recent report.

India’s government has finally come up with a plan to tackle its woeful infrastructure deficit, which Prime Minister Singh has said is choking economic growth. Government investment in roads, ports and rail could hit $500-billion (U.S.) for the five years ending in March, 2012. In the following five years, the prime minister hopes to invest another $1-trillion dollars in infrastructure with half the funds coming from the private sector.

Still, the headlines in India’s vibrant newspapers (both in Hindi and English) are currently dominated by corruption scandals involving several officials both in the public and private sectors, including the telecom minister, Andimuthu Raja, who resigned amid allegations related to wireless spectrum sales and has denied any wrongdoing. But the very fact that the corruption scandals have brought public censure is cause for optimism, according to analysts at Hong Kong’s GaveKal-Dragonomics, who say that India’s banks may present an opportunity when compared to China’s massive state-controlled lenders.

“Although India’s public banks also have guidelines forcing them to lend to priority sectors, Indian banks are clearly more mature, and more accustomed to dealing with marketplace realities,” the research and advisory firm said in a note to clients.

“And the recent loan-for-bribe scandals should improve conditions, as they demonstrate that there is now a penalty for corruption.”


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/india-asias-other-economic-powerhouse/article1853707/page1/


My comments posted in the site: "How to tackle India’s problems of enormous crushing poverty, persistent corruption scandals and crumbling infrastructure"?:

Introduce Random, Anonymous, Secured Encrypted Unique Identity (UID) Number and a Multi Purpose Biometric Smart Card linked to a single money account as Debit Card for every citizen on a war footing and demonetize currency. Track anonymously all transactions and in the event of any corruption charge, make the transactions public.

Biometric Smart Card based transactions could be the magic wand to transform India through eradication of corruption from the system and ensure security of food, health, housing, education, employment and social security for all. We can see a developed India in 5 years.

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Monday, January 03, 2011

 

Zero tolerance to corruption

Every Indian should hang his / her head in shame that India stands exposed as a The Nation of Scams again and again. The IT Tribunal which has declared that tax is payable on commissions paid in the Bofors deal 25 years ago; whereas the former PM had told Parliament, no commission was paid in the Bofors deal and CBI had closed the case!!!!

Where is our "Zero Tolerance to Corruption"? On the contrary, it has come to a stage that we can tolerate any number of zeros to the right of a number, when it comes to corruption!! After all Indians created zero and it is now being claimed in abundance by our politicians and middlemen.

Do we have an answer for this growing cancer of society?

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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

 

Bribe giving and bribe taking

It's a sad day in the history of independent India when a High Court declares that bribe has become an accepted norm now' (Deccan Chronicle, Dec 1, 2010). The court has observed: 'the bribe culture has got so deep rooted, no work is done without paying bribe; It is hard to imagine if any work gets done in government offices and offices of public authorities without payment of bribe'. The Court has made these observations while upholding the conviction and sentence of 18 months imprisonment for accepting a bribe of Rs. 1,500 seventeen years back in 1993.

On the 2G scam, Kapil Sibal has stated "As we function in a democratic set up, we must ensure transparency in the functioning of the government and justice and equity in formulating and implementing policy".

If 18 months imprisonment can be awarded for taking a bribe of Rs. 1,500, what should be the punishment for giving and taking of bribes in crores and crores of rupees? What should we do as a nation to stop all cases of bribes and how do we recover the money? How do we set up institutional mechanisms to prevent giving and taking of bribes and money laundering? How do we prevent our democracy from being derailed by horse-trading and vote buying? Can a fool-proof methodology be evolved for the public to monitor all activities in a democracy to ensure total transparency for total accountability? Without this, democracy would be a farce and more a kleptocracy; and nepotism would be the order of the day!

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Wednesday, July 07, 2010

 

on NREGA implementation and its benfits

Passionate About India - Arindam Chaudhri blog.

June 25, 2010

NREGA IS A GREAT DEVELOPMENTAL INITIATIVE, BUT THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO ENSURE THAT THE ADDITIONAL INCOME IN THE HANDS OF THE RURAL POOR GETS MOBILISED
TOWARDS LONG TERM PRODUCTIVE MEANS AND NOT ALCOHOL!

When NREGA was launched in the year 2006, it was one of the biggest leaps taken by the UPA government to productively engage the underprivileged rural folk and connect them to the mainstream, a move which was due for long. From Rs 11,000 crores as the initial outlay, the same NREGA has grown to Rs 40,100 crores in the current year, encompassing each and every district of the country. Although a phenomenal initiative, from the very beginning, the NREGA has been marred with delivery bottlenecks. Like in most other cases, corruption this time too at every stage robbed the poor rural folk of their dues. The only consolation being that at least something is reaching them, compared to nothing in the past! But then, I recently came across this disturbing news! It has been reported that Indian made foreign liquor (IMFL) sales have been going up as an aftereffect of the NREGA scheme. On hindsight, this was clearly predictable, but this was something that should have never happened in the first place! Predictable, because this is apparently a global phenomenon, that an immediate spurt in income disproportionately increases the propensity of consumption, and if it is backed with illiteracy and lack of awareness, the outcomes are even more hazardous, like we are seeing in our case! But then, what is most unfortunate is that a scheme which had the promise to transform the rural economy is actually pushing it to a bigger crisis! And if corrective actions are not taken on an immediate basis, we ourselves would be blamed for funding this nation into becoming a nation of alcoholics!

So when the government was all set to distribute around Rs 40,000 crores through NREGA, apart from ensuring that the money reaches the targeted population and does not get eaten up by the system, the government should have also ensured that there was a serious cap on the supply of alcohol in these regions. What happened was just the reverse. In fact, over the past few years, liquor outlets have on an average doubled in the rural areas. In Bihar, for example, the number of liquor outlets in the rural areas in the year 2006/07 was around 2800, which has gone up by more than 6000 currently. And this is all set to rise further as it is reported that the Excise and Prohibition Department is about to sanction one liquor vend in every three villages. It’s tragic that state governments don’t show a similar commitment for opening schools and health centres across each village. The bigger tragedy is that the per capita consumption of cereals is reducing every year, whereas that of liquor is increasing. The per capita consumption of cereals has fallen by almost two kg in the last decade. Bihar is not the only case in point, a similar growth in liquor supplies and consumption is being observed across the country. In Andhra Pradesh too, in a recent auction of around 6500 liquor vends, the rural areas put up the highest bids!

Reports also state that the liquor traders are very upbeat about the rural economy as various developmental schemes like the NREGA are enhancing the purchasing power within the rural populace, which has been driving up their sales. The government has also been extremely helpful in providing these liquor traders the reach without any concerns about the long term impact this is creating.

As I said earlier, the government should definitely put an immediate cap on the licensing of liquor outlets, particularly in rural India. This might also trigger the supply of illicit liquor and might even create an entire black economy around liquor. So the challenge to restrict consumption of alcohol and divert the new income towards consumption of cereals, saving, and into social investments like education for their children, is going to be a tall one, both for the Centre and the state governments!

One way to arrest this challenge is to issue the NREGA cards to the female member of the family rather than the male member. Globally, it has been observed that whenever income levels go up, women fare relatively better with respect to overall family welfare, as compared to their male counterparts. Even the famous Grameen Bank, which works on a micro-finance model and has had a huge success in transforming Bangladesh, hinges on this very premise that funding women with loans is any day a better bet than providing loans to men.

All in all, I would like to reiterate again that NREGA is a great developmental and transformational initiative. But then, successfully implementing the scheme across the nation is just half of the job done. The government also needs to ensure that the additional incomes generated by the rural folk are mobilized towards long term productive means. That would be the real challenge and transformation in the real sense!

http://arindamchaudhuri.blogspot.com/2010/06/nrega-is-great-developmental-initiative.html

My comments posted in the site:

NREGA should become a great developmental initiative. Instead it appears to be a damp squib as it is felt more as a dole distribution scheme in another name, not truly adding value to the local community in terms of creating long term assets for the over all economic development and prevention of migration. It is a big drain on the scarce resources of the Government and it may now be too late to reverse the damage done by NREGA as the rural poor cannot now imagine living without free money from NREGA, so much so the agriculture productivity has come down drastically. Please see the below links on the initiatives to streamline NREGA:

Villagers get digital identity - Biometric tracking gives a tamper proof identity to villagers http://www.indianexpress.com/news/aids-counsel-a-call-away/21904/2

Bihar shows smart card way to cleaner rural job scheme - http://www.indianexpress.com/story/33365.html

NREGA going hi-tech in Bihar - Vidya Vishwanathan - Civil Society Online - June 2007
http://www.civilsocietyonline.com/June07/india07ngrea.asp

The 'BSC' of Identity - A Biometric Smart Card Device can be a fool-proof ID for citizens, says this ICT Consultant - http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ew/2007/03/19/stories/2007031900110300.htm

ID Cards get smarter - http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=326049

4Ps Business and Marketing Magazine - A Plan Media Publication, New Delhi, India - Special Feature - COLUMN CITIZENRY - A prescription to end corruption - Unique identification of every citizen will help kill the corruption malaise in developing economies http://www.4psbusinessandmarketing.com/17072008/storyd.asp?sid=2112&page....

Backward Bihar goes for the smartest cards - Times of India – April 04, 2010
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Swaminomics/entry/backward-bihar-goes-for-the#comment-form


Unique ID - Letters Column - Deccan Chronicle, Chennai - Monday, April 12, 2010.
There is no doubt that Unique ID can be the panacea for most evils of modern society, if implemented correctly. It can help the government to save crores of tax payers’ money year after year lost on account of leakages in the system. UIDAI should ensure compliance with International Data Security Standards and be vested with the responsibility of registering every citizen and resident in India and issuing Biometric Smart Card with multi modal biometrics (finger prints, iris, facial, palm vein and DNA). All transactions of all individuals and organizations must be mandated through the use of the Biometric Smart Card. This can help to plug all the loop holes in the system and ensure transparency and accountability. http://www.dc-epaper.com/DC/DCC/2010/04/12/INDEX.SHTML?ArtId=010_030&Search=Y

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Sunday, July 04, 2010

 

Corruption pandemic

Letters column of Editorial page of Deccan Chronicle, Chennai, July 05, 2010

CORRUPTION PANDEMIC

It has become a daily affair to read about high-level corruption among politicians, middlemen, godmen, businessmen, educationists, bureaucrats and elected representatives (CBI seals IAS official's house, July 4). It is a matter of grave concern that corruption has become the order of the day in almost all spheres of public activity. It makes one wonder if it is the present form of democracy which is responsible for such high levels of corruption? What is the answer to the problem of corruption? How do we eliminate the cancer of corruption from our society?

KRIS DEV Chennai

http://www.dc-epaper.com/DC/DCC/2010/07/05/INDEX.SHTML

http://www.dc-epaper.com/DC/DCC/2010/07/05/ArticleHtmls/05_07_2010_008_025.shtml?Mode=0

The article I had sent is as follows:

Corruption galore

It has almost become a daily event to read in the newspapers of high level corruption among politicians, middlemen, godmen, businessmen, educationists, bureaucrats, lower officials, elected representatives, professionals, etc. - "Raids don't spare politicos or godmen" and "CBI seals IAS official's house" - DC June 4, 2010.

It is a matter of grave concern among all well meaning citizens of the country that corruption is the order of the day in all most all public activities from birth to death nay from womb to tomb. It makes one to think, is it the present form of democracy that we follow, that is responsible for such high levels of corruption? Is it morally and physically feasible for the government to conduct raids objectively on all such cases of corruption apolitically, abureaucratically, etc?

If not what is the answer to the problem of corruption? How do we elemnate the cancer of corruption from our society? It has become a endemic problem, out to devour our democracy. Is it not high time, public debate is initiated at all levels of society for arriving at a consensus and a clear time bound action plan?
--
Kris Dev, Chennai

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Thursday, June 17, 2010

 

NREGA funds misuse

Deccan Chronicle, Chennai, June 18, 2010 published in Letters Column - Editorial Page 8:

NREGA fraud

It is gratifying to note that a Panchayat President was sacked and staff suspended over corruption in NREGA funds (Panchayat Chief sacked over NREGA funds - Deccan Chronicle, Chennai - June 17).

It is regularly reported by social audits that a part of NREGA funds totaling over Rs. 40,100 crores are being siphoned out in collusion with officials. Is it possible for the Vigilance and Anti-Corruption Department to check over 250,000 panchayats of India?

Would it not be better to introduce Biometric Smart Card based work tracking and payment? By this, payment by cash can be stopped. The Biometric Smart Card can be linked to a money account as a Debit Card to empower the poor to draw rations from PDS shops and make purchases from the open market using the Smart Card. This can plug the leakages in the NREGA funds and PDS system.

Kris Dev, Chennai

http://www.dc-epaper.com/DC/DCC/2010/06/18/INDEX.SHTML

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Tuesday, July 22, 2008

 

Save Indian Democracy

The brazen display of hard cash on the floor of the parliament given as bribe in the cash for vote is a shame on Indian democracy.

We are living in kleptocracy. One Telgi scam could cost the exchequer Rs. 30,000 crores. the non performing assets of nationalised banks is a whopping Rs. 200,000 crores.

Corruption and bribery is the order of the day. Demonetize currency. Ban currency circulation. Introduce Biometric Smart card linked to a single bank account as Debit Card for all transactions and make it public to root out corruption.

Liberate India from all predators out to swindle the nation and keep us free from corruption.

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